“Hungary believes in democracy and competition” said Viktor Orbán during a press conference, in response to whether he would accept electoral defeat in the upcoming April elections. “Don’t be afraid of what happens if I lose”, continued the Hungarian prime minister in the joint press conference with US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
Just a few days before, a grainy black and white image of a bedroom was posted on a mysterious website, radnaimark.hu, with suggestions that it was connected to a sex tape featuring Péter Magyar, leader of the country’s challenger party, Tisza.
If — as Mr Orbán and Mr Rubio suggested during the conference — Hungary is in a foreign policy “golden age”, why is the domestic machine digging through the trash for kompromat at home?
Pre-emptive strikes
“Because they know that together we can take down those in power and this whole corrupt system” thinks Péter Magyar, who now leads over Orbán’s party by 9 percentage points, according to Politico.
Before his opponents were able to capitalise on the ‘scandal’, Magyar put out a public statement getting ahead of it, which has now been seen by more than a quarter million people. In the address, he explained that on the night of 2 August 2024, Tisza held a party for its supporters, at which his ex-girlfriend was in attendance. Magyar — divorced from his wife for over a year at this point — claims to have been “lured” to a Budapest flat in a honey-trap operation, where “people unknown to him” as well as drugs and alcohol were present.
Although Magyar claims no wrongdoing and a clear conscience, he has opted for a strategy of total transparency — describing the situation as a “classic Russian-style kompromat”, and warning supporters of potential deepfakes. The website on which the picture remains ominously retorted Magyar’s claims of sobriety with just the chilling line “Are you sure?”.
Whether Magyar’s candour will work is yet to be seen, but pointing out Fidesz’s hypocritical moral grandstanding has worked in the past. It was the masterful unmasking of the party’s “family-friendly” facade in the wake of a child abuse scandal which gave Magyar’s campaign its initial momentum.
The electoral Sword of Damocles
This current scandal could go one of two ways. On the one hand, it may demonstrate the depths to which Fidesz is willing to sink to stop Magyar, which has so far reflected poorly on the party. One commenter thanked Fidesz for having “convinced [his] elderly mother to vote for Tisza”, after showing they have resorted to such underhanded means. What public reaction the scandal has received has been generally supportive of Magyar, rightfully viewing him as the victim of a forceful invasion of privacy. Even Péter Márki-Zay, the 2022 opposition leader, came out in support of Magyar, framing the incident not as a moral failing but as evidence of Fidesz’s moral bankruptcy.
On the other hand, no video has yet been released. It would not be surprising if whoever is in possession of the tape would make it public closer to election day — hoping voters will make their choice with the image fresh in their minds.
But while the domestic machinery grinds through the mud, Orbán spent the rest of his week playing the statesman.
The burning question
In the press conference with Rubio — whose official reason for visiting was the signing of a nuclear energy cooperation deal — there was a palpable sense of unease. Although both Mr Orbán and Mr Rubio lauded the state of US-Hungarian relations as a “golden age” and sang the praises of collaboration on topics such as Hungarian citizens’ renewed ability to travel to the US visa-free — throwing an electoral bone to a shrinking middle class — the prime minister’s potential failure to gain re-election came up more than once.
Not wishing to “drag Secretary Rubio into Hungarian internal affairs”, Mr Orbán reassured reporters he would accept defeat should Tisza win the April elections — something Mr Rubio’s own boss has had trouble doing in the past. The Secretary of State praised Mr Orbán’s leadership and “very close” personal relationship with President Trump, but promised to work with whoever is leading Hungary come April.
“Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose,” said Orbán, reminding the press that of his more than thirty years in Hungarian politics, he has spent twenty as prime minister and sixteen in the opposition. The prime minister also repeatedly reiterated Hungary’s belief in democracy and competition. “Do not be afraid of what happens if I lose”.
Although the words may sound reassuring, the kompromat threat on Magyar should remind us to not lose sight of how politics works when Fidesz hold the power.
Outside interests
The Hungarian election has drawn the gaze of powers far beyond Budapest, with Orbán’s notoriously dovish relationship with Putin being contrasted with Magyar’s promises to collaborate more closely with the EU and NATO. Just as Magyar invoked foreign interference, claiming that despite help from “Russian intelligence and falsified recordings” Fidesz’s time is up, Orbán asserted that Ukraine and the EU are interfering in the election in favour of Magyar.
Amid the darkness that surrounds Hungary’s April election, one thing remains clear: many outside of Hungary are deeply invested in who its winner is.