Will the Orbán system be held accountable?

Péter Magyar’s election was as much his success as Fidesz’ failure. The two campaigns represented opposite ends on a spectrum of competence, and the world’s major blocs are watching closely.

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Explaining how the Fidesz-designed electoral system has worked to turn simple pluralities into sweeping mandates — and how this very system could backfire to deliver a Tisza landslide.

With less than a week until election day, explosives threatening Hungary’s gas supply are found at the Serbian border. Unsurprisingly, both the reality of the threat and the identity of the culprits differ depending who you ask.

Despite social discrimination and economic marginalisation, the Roma have have been locked in a relationship of feudal loyalty with Fidesz. However, worsening conditions and high-profile scandals suggest Hungary’s largest minority may turn on the party, to potenitally momentous electoral effects.

Orbán’s control of the domestic narrative is not what it once was

Amid heightened tensions with Kyiv, the possibility of war — fabricated or real — may prove the decisive issue in the Hungarian election.

In a Budapest press conference, Viktor Orbán and Marco Rubio lauded the “golden age” of Hungarian-American relations; meanwhile, at home, Orbán digs through the trash for kompromat.

Former insider-turned-insurgent, Péter Magyar rose from a period of crisis, upending Hungarian politics. His challenge to Orbán’s sixteen year grip on power will prove difficult to execute, but if successful, will have reverberations far beyond Budapest.

For the first time in over a decade, the cracks are starting to show - but even if Orbán loses, the pathway forward is unclear, and the implications extend far beyond Budapest.